By Yohanes Sulaiman (Associate lecturer, Universitas Jendral Achmad Yani) & Asrudin Azwar (Founder of The Asrudian Center)
Tulisan ini dimuat dalam The Conversation, 17 Desember 2018, 2.06pm WIB
Four months out from Indonesia’s presidential election, recent surveys by various respected pollsters indicate that incumbent President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo will win.
Survey results from pollsters Indikator Politik, Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC), Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) and Kompasshowed more than 50% of respondents would vote for Jokowi. His opponent, Prabowo Subianto, was attracting only 30% of votes.
The question is whether that number will hold true in 2019? What are the risks for Jokowi, and can Prabowo turn the tables and win?
Assessing Jokowi’s path to victory
Jokowi has a bigger chance to win the election. He has secured support from more political parties than Prabowo has. A coalition of nine partiessupports Jokowi’s candidacy. Prabowo has five parties backing him.
Jokowi’s victory, however, is not at all assured. Continue reading